• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0401

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 5 01:05:17 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 050104
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050104=20
    TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-050230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0401
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0804 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast TX/Northwest LA into
    north-central/northeast AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

    Valid 050104Z - 050230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

    SUMMARY...Tornado potential will continue to focus across far
    northeast Texas, far northwest Louisiana northeastward into
    south-central to north-central/northeast Arkansas this evening.
    Tornado Watch 113 continues until 9pm CDT/02z, but a replacement
    (and east-northeastward expanding) Tornado Watch is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered intense storms including
    embedded/semi-discrete supercells will continue to focus this
    evening especially within a southwest/northeast-oriented corridor
    across southwest/central into north-central/northeast Arkansas. The complex/muddled convective mode will continue to be a factor, but
    the moist environment and strengthening low-level shear will
    continue to support tornado potential, possibly including a strong
    tornado, aside from damaging winds/some hail.

    The 00z observed sounding from Little Rock features a moisture-rich
    boundary layer with a 70F surface dewpoint and 13.8 g/kg mean mixing
    ratio. 0-1km SRH was around 330 m2/s2, and increase over the past
    couple hours per prior WSR-88D VWP data, with a further increase
    expected over the next hour or two especially from southwest/central
    Arkansas northeastward into northeast Arkansas/far southeast
    Missouri.

    ..Guyer.. 04/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4x61N73DbT8Kz4kBaGC1akzM3p8T-y7lovdWrCbTHKV62TvgmSjwhQkfFptSyz1IZz4lP39HE= sDBuKzYM3KY_YsMtko$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33449270 32749433 34479353 36359162 35618966 33449270=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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