ACUS11 KWNS 182052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182051=20
MIZ000-182245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Areas affected...parts of cntrl and srn Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 182051Z - 182245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for thunderstorm initiation along and just
south of a warm frontal zone across lower Michigan is being
monitored for a possible severe weather watch issuance, as this may
be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail and wind by 6-8 PM
EDT.
DISCUSSION...A weak perturbation, within larger-scale anticyclonic
flow on the northwestern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging,
will continue to progress across and northeast of the middle
Mississippi Valley through late afternoon. Associated forcing for
ascent appears to have aided a flare up of convection approaching
the Greater Milwaukee vicinity, and latest Rapid Refresh suggests
that this may contribute to erosion of inhibition associated with
elevated mixed-layer air across southern Lower Michigan by the
22-00Z time frame.=20=20
As this occurs, the moistening boundary-layer along and south of a
warm frontal zone (downstream of a weak surface low migrating across
southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois) may become characterized by
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg within the next couple hours, in the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although calibrated HREF and
NCEP SREF guidance indicates highest probabilities for thunderstorm
development evolving above/to the north of the warm frontal zone,
initiation of storms closer to and just south of the frontal zone
will provide the highest potential for organizing and intensifying
into a severe hail and wind threat.
..Kerr/Smith.. 04/18/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9snil68kA9J5Lb1j1w0r5wfzgvzyi4zpWpC3WFXhuSGNcpP9d4h4hTdJ6t9vX0GoI9rLX3MpD= 93bpqOZpAT6ppdZSQI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43118598 43578274 42438293 41798653 42558615 43118598=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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