• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0475

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 19 04:03:57 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 190402
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190401=20
    MOZ000-190530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0475
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1101 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

    Areas affected...south-central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...

    Valid 190401Z - 190530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest severe wind threat over the next few hours
    will be across southern Missouri where a bowing line of storms has
    developed.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Missouri has
    recently started bowing out east of Springfield, MO. Where this
    bowing segment is more favorably oriented to the deep-layer flow and along/ahead of the surface front, a greater damaging wind threat
    will exist. The intensity/longevity of this threat remains
    questionable as MUCAPE is lower across southeast Missouri
    (~1000-1200 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis). However, the low-level jet
    is intensifying (as sampled by the LZK and PAH VWP) and may be
    sufficient to maintain a severe wind threat for a few more hours
    into portions of southeast Missouri.

    ..Bentley.. 04/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ij2mQHdIRtbQlemjmQ_is19tabm_LvAA5HKdxtIM4QEkpYBLSiPWvQ-nkUaLTJ5CHmSLtTeR= Xniwm2-ziwb4amKGFM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36909328 37079331 37299299 37569286 37759180 37779033
    37499019 37059102 36859233 36859298 36909328=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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