• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0554

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 25 03:38:35 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 250335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250335=20
    OKZ000-250500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0554
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1035 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

    Areas affected...Northwest into central OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

    Valid 250335Z - 250500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some severe threat will spread east/southeast late
    tonight, though the longevity of the threat is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...After being confined to northwest OK for much of the
    evening, an long-lived storm cluster has shown some
    east-southeastward acceleration over the last hour. In the short
    term, this cluster may continue to pose a threat of hail, localized
    severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, as it moves through a
    moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. However,
    increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent renders
    uncertainty regarding the longevity of the severe threat into the
    overnight hours.=20

    There may be some tendency for the ongoing cluster to propagate
    eastward along a weakly confluent surface boundary, with some
    potential for redevelopment of convection along/behind the trailing
    outflow. There is also some potential for ongoing convection in the
    TX Panhandle to eventually spread eastward into
    west-central/northwest OK, with at least an isolated severe threat.

    ..Dean.. 04/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PiMJxhBupUp8X6llidD4XPD4XgLsnaHp5nxhIaZHS59TDdeym1lKaKPQcoogSXqNtWXMfYWf= InX5NFm4qhI9vnmPXM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36389957 36849814 36839746 36589707 36059714 35599765
    35489826 35439880 35339944 35319976 35479992 35629996
    35919993 36149995 36389957=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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