• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0622

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 19:54:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301954
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301953=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0622
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

    Areas affected...western and central Arkansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

    Valid 301953Z - 302200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

    SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms will continue eastward
    the next several hours. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain
    possible. A downstream watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The line of convection across western AR will continue
    to shift east at around 35 kt the next few hours. downstream,
    filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid
    80s amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Midlevel lapse rates remain
    modest, but the moist environment is fostering modest instability
    amid a moderately sheared environment. Given stronger heating ahead
    of the line, low-level lapse rates have steepened considerable, and
    this may foster a continued risk for damaging gusts into early
    evening. A new watch downstream from Tornado Watch 197 will likely
    be needed in the next hour.

    ..Leitman.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7nPR8yS-RhVx-m5Yge7qsrfgzo3lHq3pVTXaOEM_Fhf9S-mqB3LcTW9z7C3NAF7XKLBoh091p= uyEI0tI4Gtzdavo-4w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35659348 35719254 35479186 35119155 34569157 33499197
    33099222 33039257 33019310 33109398 33459431 34149466
    35329435 35659348=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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