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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0656

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 2 20:45:55 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 022044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022044=20
    TXZ000-022215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0656
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southern...central...and eastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212...215...

    Valid 022044Z - 022215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212, 215
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 212 and 215. Large hail is the main threat, though damaging
    gusts and a tornado remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are
    underway, and are expected to persist through the remainder of the
    afternoon across southern into central and eastern TX. Ahead of the
    cold front, quasi-linear multicellular convection persists across
    central TX, where marginal severe hail has been reported. Surface
    temperatures ahead of these storms are in the 80s F, with low 70s F
    dewpoints, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and a continued marginal
    severe hail threat.=20

    To the south of the central TX storms, supercells continue to
    fluctuate in strength along a baroclinic boundary. These storms have
    produced occasional instances of marginal severe hail and brief
    bouts of low-level rotation. Given ample buoyancy with these storms,
    periodic occurrences of large hail and low-level rotation should
    continue through the afternoon. Once storms to the north encounter
    the ongoing supercells, a few severe gusts could occur given cold
    pool mergers.=20

    Perhaps the greatest threat for severe storms may materialize east
    of the Big Bend, over the Edwards Plateau. Here, undisturbed
    insolation has persisted the longest, resulting in over 4000 J/kg
    MLCAPE amid 45 kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells that develop
    in this environment could pose the greatest risk for 2+ inch
    diameter hail and perhaps a tornado, as also suggested by some of
    the latest Warn-on-Forecast output.

    ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_RcpemvGDEqigsq-DYi81ioLUoPCQysRYs3W81QDlDfXtVUWRbUJeerJD5T1djSAUTbwIKPh= 36wS26OZVPYM2GNpSw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29790178 30770011 31569759 31599588 31239487 30539465
    30159463 29789512 29499603 29269670 28829772 28689858
    28499940 28430012 28450040 28900073 29390119 29630144
    29790178=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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